LOCALISED partners, Author at LOCALISED-Project

Understanding the Balance Between Accuracy and Variance in Climate Transition Studies

Nov 16, 2023 | News

Figure 1: Illustrating the relationship between accuracy and variance.

A common topic in goal-oriented modeling is the relationship between result accuracy and variance depicted in Figure 1. The goal of any analysis is to produce sufficiently precise results at all times. However, during development, it can occur that models are accurate only in specific circumstances or produce consistent, yet inaccurate results. For example, it might occur that a model’s results predict decarbonization actions well in urban regions but are nonsensical in rural areas. This can occur if a climate action, such as “commercial afforestation,” is insufficiently constrained. Due to this, inaccuracies, such as decarbonizing forests by planting more trees, may occur. In this case, a model would not account for variance between European regions appropriately. The opposite type of error stems from a model’s accuracy. Modeling carbon capture-oriented measures in each region may be conceptually appropriate, but its universal usage would not be an accurate prediction of decarbonization solutions, due to its cost, energy demand, and further challenges.

In LOCALISED, we aim to provide comprehensive climate transition solutions for European regions, which are both accurate and consider the local regional variances.

Evaluating climate transition pathways on a European scale provides a good testing ground for these criteria, due to the heterogeneity of regions. As outlined in Figure 2, LOCALISED uses an integrated and iterative approach to hone the accuracy and variance of our produced climate action plans. Leveraging the progress made in the Horizon 2020 EUCalculator project, machine learning techniques help extract and refine regional transition pathways. An optimization platform pairs this with the LOCALISED measure database to evaluate specific measure combinations across Europe. Each process step is refined in iterative and synchronized development stages to maintain coherence and lessen variance.

Figure 2: Graphical depiction of the relationship between LOCALISED assessment modules

As the project develops, we will continue to refine our methods towards these aspects to provide actionable climate change solutions on a European scale.

Understanding structural barriers of productivity in Italy

Nov 13, 2023 | News

Moving Forward with Consolidation, Engagement, and Dissemination

Photo: RFF-CMCC-LOCALISED Webinar

Understanding the socioeconomic drivers of decarbonization and recognizing the role of structural factors in shaping the local and regional policies can benefit policy makers, citizens, and businesses in the EU. In addition to downscaling decarbonization pathways for local entities within the EU, the LOCALISED project tries to provide a fresh perspective on how social, political, and economic mechanisms at the macro level can hinder or accelerate the adoption of such localised decarbonization pathways.

On May 8, 2023, our partner CMCC hosted a seminar to discuss the structural barriers of economic growth and productivity in Italy. The speaker was Max Krahe from the Institute for socioeconomics at the University of Duisburg-Essen and the Institute for Macro-finance at Dezernat Zukunft who presented his report on “Understanding Italy’s Stagnation”. He explained how Italy’s prolonged economic stagnation stands as a pressing concern on fiscal, national, and European fronts. To address this complex issue, it is essential to delve into a comprehensive analysis of the root causes. Therefore, the report has aimed to provide a succinct overview, comparison, and evaluation of the primary explanations underpinning Italy’s economic standstill. Beginning with a retrospective glance at Italy’s recent economic performance, it scrutinises three overarching explanatory frameworks: the “unwillingness to reform” perspective, the monetary integration viewpoint, and the firm-level considerations. None of these theories, in isolation, offer an entirely convincing rationale for Italy’s stagnation. Consequently, the discussion around these narratives amalgamates the most promising elements from each, charting a path forward.

While the report does not present specific reform recommendations, its diagnosis underscores the imperative need for any credible reform package to address the deep-seated issues responsible for Italy’s economic stagnation. This structural analysis shows that Italy’s stagnation is not caused solely by excessive austerity or an inability to depreciate one’s currency, nor by a general absence of reform efforts over the last twenty years. Simply lifting deficit or debt limits or doubling down on past reform packages appears unpromising.

Instead, the problem appears to be that Italy adopted a doubly incoherent mix of structural reforms and austerity, and then stuck to it after its ineffectiveness had become apparent. This reform mix consisted in fiscal austerity combined with generally liberalizing structural reforms. The mix proved incoherent, first, because structural reforms struggle to produce good outcomes where aggregate demand is insufficient. It also proved incoherent, second, because the various reforms pulled against each other. For example, while some labour market reforms encouraged an Anglophone model of generalist skills and high labour mobility, others aimed at the German model of facilitating investments in firm-specific skills via stability and employment protection. As a result of this double incoherence, the reforms of the last twenty years dismantled Italy’s old, worn-out growth model without establishing a new one. Besides this incoherent reform mix, three institutional features appear to be important roadblocks to investment and productivity growth: organized crime, the judicial system, and – to a lesser extent – the quality of public administration, esp. at the local level. These reduce private investment and lower the quality of public investment.

Our LOCALISED partner Metropolitan Association Gdańsk-Gdynia-Sopot is starting MEVO 2.0 – Metropolitan Bicycle System

Nov 3, 2023 | News

Photo: bike Mevo | Photo by: Konrad Kędzior

The LOCALISED partner Metropolitan Association Gdańsk-Gdynia-Sopot is introducing city bikes to the streets as an additional climate measure to complement the public transport ones.

The MEVO 2.0 Metropolitan Bicycle System allows residents of the 16 communes of the Metropolitan area Gdańsk-Gdynia-Sopot participating in the project to rent two types of two-wheelers, electric and traditional, after paying the appropriate fee using a mobile mobile application. This project will promote the usage of bicycles as a means of transport, reducing traffic jams and having a positive impact on the health of residents.

The Mevo 2.0 Metropolitan Bicycle System is an innovative urban bicycle project. MEVO is a modern 4th generation system based on battery replacement technology. Used batteries will get a “second life” and the system will be operated exclusively by zero-emission vehicles or cargo bikes. The system currently includes 2,100 bicycles (1,600 with electric assistance and 500 traditional ones) in 16 communes. Ultimately, the system is expected to cover about twice as many bicycles. It is possible to rent both electrically assisted bicycles and the classic, unassisted version.

Bicycles under the MEVO system feature high-end water resistance, and the cover protects the battery by protecting it from mechanical damage and heat. The bikes have tubeless tires that do not require air refilling; they also have a speed and charge meter, a phone holder, an inductive charger, tubeless wheels and an automatic transmission. Riding comfort is aided by the bike’s automatic gearing system, which simplifies operation and eliminates the risk of damaging the shift handle. Moreover, it has a charge and speed meter.

Under the MEVO 2.0 system, residents of the metropolitan area can use regular or assisted electric city bicycles after paying a fee. MEVO is included in the testing phase. The system is a promotion of the bicycle as an environmentally friendly means of urban transportation, a way to reduce traffic congestion and for the benefit of residents’ health.

Currently, the MEVO 2.0 project is in the second phase of external tests to implement a public city bike system. A multi-stage testing system is necessary before MEVO is fully launched. 25 traditional two-wheelers and 75 electric vehicles were checked. The functionalities of the mobile application, the project website and the Supervision and Reporting System were verified. Then external tests began on a group of 80,000 registered users. They are just one step away from fully launching the MEVO 2.0 system.

Photo: the Mevo bike parking station in Kartuzy

LOCALISED input given by PIK during SDG Workshop in Thailand

Oct 30, 2023 | News

PIK members Dr. Prajal Pradhan and Anne Warchold organized the “Strengthening Teaching and Research on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Curriculum Transfer and Capacity Building Workshop” in Thailand in August 2023.

The Workshop was hosted by Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and was a significant gathering that united 35 people from 8 different countries and 14 universities. These participants were not only professors and teachers, but also included students and eager learners. It was a diverse group, with people coming from countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, and Germany. The workshop’s primary focus was on sustainability education in the global south, which includes countries facing unique challenges in sustainability. The initiative, involvement and representation from the global north, like Germany, was appreciated. This cross-continental exchange of ideas and experiences added depth and richness to the discussions, allowing everyone to learn from each other and appreciate different perspectives on sustainability education.

PIK members enriched the work done in the “Promoting Himalayan Development by Strengthening Teaching and Research on Sustainable Development Goals” (ForHimSDG) project, which is funded by DAAD (German Academic Exchange Service) under the call SDG Partnerships. They brought insights from LOCALISED, such as tailored climate action strategies and equitable energy considerations and used analytical methodologies. These inputs directly enrich the ForHimSDG project’s goal of enhancing SDG teaching and research in the Himalayan region. The workshop’s dedication to advancing sustainable practices using modern technologies and indigenous knowledge while integrating SDGs echoes LOCALISED’s commitment to facilitating the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures locally while aligning with global sustainability targets. This exchange catalyzes ongoing and future SDG research on various levels, amplifying the positive impact of both projects.

SDG Oriented Indicators for SECAPs definition & assessment

Oct 25, 2023 | News

We have published published a report (LOCALISED Deliverable 5.1) that introduce a detailed definition of the SGD Oriented Indicators linked to Sustainable Energy and Climate Actions Plans (SECAPs) both for public dissemination and as inputs to other related tasks of the projects.

Specifically, The reports contains 234 indicators connecting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sustainable Energy and Climate Actions Plans (SECAPs), being two main instruments at regional and local level to implement mitigation, adaptation and energy poverty actions. In a context where SDGs and the Sustainable Energy and Climate Actions Plans (SECAPs) are currently not aligned, the aim of the proposed indicators is to facilitate not only the optimization of resources, but also the smart implementation of actions and the benchmarking between regions and cities.

The report includes an extensive bibliographic review of local and regional SDGs adapted frameworks, and two complementary processes to gather relevant feedback from experts.

Since indicators are needed for several parts of the process, they need to be defined in an early project stage to understand the input data needed, the calculations required, and the output data provided. To take into consideration all these aspects, different steps were conducted to gather, filter and evaluate the list of indicators.

The 234 indicators presented outline the diversity of goals and targets that can be influenced by local actions plans and the multiple interactions between SDGs targets and SECAPs pillars.